ASML: a toll road with a cyclical surface

Every few quarters the market rediscovers that ASML's order book is lumpy, and every few quarters the shares fall as if the monopoly were in question. It is not. The company remains the only supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, and every leading-edge logic and memory roadmap we have seen runs through its machines until well into the next decade.

Bookings came in below consensus, driven by a pause in memory orders. Logic customers, by contrast, continued to commit to High-NA tools. Gross margin of 52% was at the top of guidance, helped by a richer installed-base mix. Management left its 2030 revenue framework unchanged.